Issue - meetings

Minute 217 refers

RESOLVED - that the Sub-District ‘Population and Household Forecasts - Parish Groupings and Towns: Phase 1’ (May 2012) technical study as detailed at Essential Reference Paper ‘C’ of the report submitted, be supported as part of the evidence base for the preparation of the East Herts District Plan.

(see also Minute 235 above)

Minute 5 refers

The Executive considered the recommendations of the District Planning Executive Panel made at its meeting held on 26 July 2012 in respect of the Sub-District ‘Population and Household Forecasts - Parish Groupings and Towns: Phase 1’ (May 2012) technical study.

Councillor G Jones referred to his comments made at the Panel meeting, which he believed had not been sufficiently reflected in the Minutes.  He reiterated his concern at the methodology used to extrapolate demographic projections based on historic trends which he believed could be self-fulfilling, in that some forecasts were “supply-led”.  He questioned whether the methodology used could expose the Authority to challenge.

The Executive Member for Strategic Planning and Transport responded by emphasising the robustness of the process.  This document represented only one part of the wider evidence base and that other issues, such as employment, sustainability, etc, were factors also.  He stated that the methodology used was well recognised within the planning profession and that this would be recognised in the Examination in Public.

The Executive supported the technical study as now submitted.

RECOMMENDED - that the Sub-District ‘Population and Household Forecasts - Parish Groupings and Towns: Phase 1’ (May 2012) technical study as detailed at Essential Reference Paper ‘C’ of the report submitted, be supported as part of the evidence base for the preparation of the East Herts District Plan.

(see also Minute 223 below)

The Panel considered a report setting out the findings of Phase 1 of the Sub-District Population and Household Forecasts technical work that would form part of the evidence base for generating an appropriate District-wide housing target for East Herts to 2031, and would inform the preparation of the District Plan.  It also provided demographic information at parish grouping and town level.

The Panel noted that Edge Analytics Ltd had been appointed in March 2012 to undertake population and household forecasting technical work at the sub-district level.  This technical work would be undertaken in two phases: Phase 1 provided ‘trend-led’ demographic information, whilst Phase 2 would test a range of alternative dwelling-based scenarios at the sub-district level.  This would enable comparison of the possible housing targets against the ‘trend-led’ scenarios to understand the potential demographic and housing implications of meeting those housing targets.  It was noted that Phase 2 was expected to be undertaken in August 2012.

Councillor G Jones commented on the relationship between trends analysis and forecasting and whether the numbers could be accepted at face value.  Officers responded by emphasising that the forecasts were evidence based and that sustainability tests were at the core of the process.

In response to questions by Councillors Mrs R Cheswright and J Wing, Officers confirmed their confidence levels in the data, which referenced a number of informed sources such as the Office of National Statistics, census data, the electoral register, GP registrations, etc.  The document issued for public consultation would include approximate numbers.

The Panel supported the technical study as now submitted.

RECOMMENDED - that the Sub-District ‘Population and Household Forecasts - Parish Groupings and Towns: Phase 1’ (May 2012) technical study as detailed at Essential Reference Paper ‘C’ of the report submitted, be supported as part of the evidence base for the preparation of the East Herts District Plan.