Issue - meetings

RESOLVED – that the Greater Essex Demographic Forecasts 2012 - 2037 Phase 5 technical study, be agreed as part of the evidence base to inform and support the East Herts District Plan.

(see also Minute 266).

Minute 4 refers

The Panel considered a report setting out the findings of the Greater Essex Demographic Forecasts 2012 - 2037 Phase 5 Main Report technical work, which was intended to form part of the evidence base for generating an appropriate Districtwide housing target for the period 2011 - 2031, and thus inform and support the East Herts District Plan.

Councillor G Jones questioned the use of 2008 household projections which the Government had advised had been replaced by the 2011 projections.  He believed that taking an average of both projections overstated the need. 

Officers stated that all 9 alternative growth scenarios had been evaluated using both the 2011 and 2008 household projections to provide a range of outcomes that took account of the uncertainties associated with such forecasts.  The 2011 based projections were an interim set of data which only covered a 10 year period to 2021.  Therefore, they were of limited value for strategic planning purposes in relation to plan periods extending beyond this date.  In the absence of a full set of data, Officers had considered it appropriate to have regard to the 2008 based projections which extended beyond 2021.

2012 based population and household projections would be released this year which would form the basis for Phases 6 & 7 of the demographic forecasting work.  These forecasts would be considered by the Council in due course.  Officers stated that it would be important to keep re-evaluating the objectively assessed need for the District, having regard to the latest household and population projections.

The Panel supported the recommendation as now detailed.

RECOMMENDED – that the Greater Essex Demographic Forecasts 2012 - 2037 Phase 5 technical study, be agreed as part of the evidence base to inform and support the East Herts District Plan.

At this point (9.50 pm), the Panel agreed to extend the meeting beyond 10.00 pm in order to complete the outstanding business on the agenda.